About two weeks ago, seemingly out of the blue, an army of Sunni Islamists and fellow travellers spilled out of Syria’s Idlib region. Their offensive met with little resistance – the ‘official’ Syrian Army (whose soldiers are majority Sunni, too) simply disintegrated. The regime of Bashar Al-Assad fell like a house of cards, with a speed nobody (including yours truly) foresaw.
If anything, this shows how poor our understanding of the
Middle East is: even people from the region, who are carefully following events,
struggle to predict them; let alone the hapless West.
But we can at least analyse things post-factum, trying to
make some sense of what transpired.
Reactions from the West
First, let’s dispose of the bombastic, ridiculous statements
released by ignorant and stupid Western ‘leaders’. French President Emmanuel Macron is a typical
specimen from that sorry pack. Mr.
Macron was among the first Western politicians to weigh in on Syria, already on
8 December:
“The barbaric state has fallen. At last.
I pay tribute to the Syrian people, to their courage, to their patience. In this moment of uncertainty, I send them my wishes for peace, freedom, and unity.
France will remain committed to the security of all in the Middle East.”
Someone needs to break it to Mr. Macron: France has long ceased
to be a great power; she no longer rules colonies in the Middle East. Even while it was a great power, it proved
quite unable to defend herself, let alone others. So that bombastic commitment “to the
security of all” sounds decidedly hollow.
Even assuming that Macron – who is despised by a
majority in his own decaying country – could speak in her name.
Not the sharpest tool in the shed... |
It’s worth paying attention, however, to another part of Mr.
Macron’s post – the one praising “the Syrian people”. Firstly, because it’s a deceitful attempt to
portray a change of regime based on military might as some sort of popular
uprising. Secondly, because it’s unclear
which part of “the Syrian people” is Mr. Macron talking about. Is it the Kurds in the North-East? The Druze in the South? The Alawis in the North-West? The long-suffering Christians, who actually
supported “[t]he barbaric state” of the Assads – as they saw tyranny as
preferable to extinction? Or was Macron
referring to the Sunni majority, which spawned a variety of jihadi groups –
including the one that just rose to power in Damascus? If they were able to voice their opinions in
safety (for them and their family), some parts of “the Syrian people”
would express immense joy and jubilation at the fall of the Assad regime; others, however, would
show concern and even fear.
But I may be slightly unfair here by singling out Macron. He is just the most ridiculous of the lot –
but others (including US President Biden and UK Prime Minister Starmer) made
similar and equally hollow, meaningless, even deceitful comments.
The Syrian people
20-odd years ago, the West’s ‘understanding’ of Iraq was
shaped to a large extent by Iraqi expats such as Ahmad Chalabi,
who painted a fake picture of their country – using colours they knew were
fashionable in the West. Including
similar claims about ‘the Iraqi people’.
The West learned the hard way that the Iraqi reality was utterly
different from those self-serving pictures.
Shouldn’t that learning be applied to Syria? Or should the West commit the same mistakes
again – allow its military and/or its economic might and/or its moral support be
used in the service of yet another ignoble ‘cause’?
The Syrian reality is that, by and large, there is no “Syrian
people”. Like Iraq and Lebanon, ‘modern’
Syria is an invented country – cut by British and French colonialists out of whole
cloth.
And – also like Iraq and Lebanon – the territory of ‘Syria’
is home to a variety of people, differing by ethnicity and faith. Even the hapless BBC found it necessary to
remark:
“While Sunni Arabs are the dominant ethnic and religious group in Syria, the country is notably diverse, with a range of minority groups including Shia Alawites, of which the ousted president Bashar al-Assad is a member, Kurds, Christians, Druze, Turkmen and Ismailis, in addition to other small groups.”
The term ‘diversity’ may sound comfortingly positive to
Western ears. But the Middle Eastern
reality is that ‘diversity’ translates into sectarian division and lack of
national cohesion.
Ethno-religious map of Syria |
In Syria, eight decades of independence (more than five of
them under the Assads) failed to forge a ‘Syrian’ national identity. Ask the Kurds whether their allegiance is to
a ‘Syrian state’ ruled from Damascus – or to other Kurds, like the ones enjoying
a great deal of autonomy in Iraq, or the ones struggling under oppression in
Turkey. Ask the Druze or the Christians
if they trust a ‘Syrian’ government (any Syrian government – let alone a Sunni
Islamist one) to respect and preserve ‘diversity’.
Yes, the “barbaric state” of the Assads was hated by
many in Syria – and with good reason.
But no, “the Syrian people” had little to do with the recent change
of regime.
So what the hell happened?
Those who don’t know history, are condemned to repeat
it. For three decades, Syria has been held
together in the iron grip of a ruthless tyrant – Hafez Al-Assad. But Bashar Al-Assad, his son and successor,
was widely viewed as an epigone. His perceived
weakness emboldened internal opponents and attracted the (initially covert, then
blatant) interference of ‘neighbours’ such as Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey.
Faced with an extensive insurrection that threatened to
overwhelm those forces still loyal to him, Bashar was propped up by Iran and
Russia. The former supplied ground troops
(via the Lebanese Hizb’ullah and various Shia militias), the latter air support. They differed also in terms of interests:
Iran viewed Syria as a land bridge to Lebanon and through it to Israel; Russia
wanted to preserve its military bases on the Syrian coast – its only remaining
foothold in the Middle East.
With Russian and Iranian support, Assad re-established
control over the country’s largest cities and its most populous parts.
Worried by Shia Iran’s expanding influence, Saudi Arabia and
the Gulf emirates lavished funds on a plethora of Sunni Islamist organisations,
often at odds with each other, but all of them opposed to the Assad regime.
The West also intervened in Syria, deploying air operations
and special forces, both against the Assad regime and against ISIS. The US armed and funded a local Kurdish-led militia
– the Syrian Democratic Forces. The SDF
fought ISIS and achieved control of the majority Kurdish areas in the North and
North-East.
In turn, Turkey worried that its own restive Kurdish
minority might join their brothers just across the border – demanding autonomy
and, potentially, independence. Its
military (plus Turkish-sponsored Syrian militias) established control of a
20-mile wide ‘buffer zone’ inside Syria’s border with Turkey – a ‘buffer’ the
size of Lancashire.
Responding to the Iran-sponsored encroachment, Israel
launched hundreds of aerial bombardments on Syrian territory, targeting Islamic
Republic’s military installations and personnel, as well as assets involved in supplying
weapons to Hizb’ullah in Lebanon.
Add to the dry paragraphs above lots and lots of human
suffering. Half a million dead – many of
them women and children. Many more
maimed. Widespread hunger and economic deprivation,
abysmal lack of healthcare, collapse of children’s education. More than 12 million Syrians (i.e., more than
half of the population) displaced from their homes, of which almost 5.5 million
(roughly a quarter of the population) in neighbouring countries and overseas.
But all this is history.
Until a couple of weeks ago, it was clear to everybody that Assad won
and was there to stay. So unbreakable
seemed his grip on the country, that there were voices in the West advocating ‘bringing
him back from the cold’ in diplomatic terms – since the world would have to
work with him for many years to come…
So why the sudden collapse?
Most commentators attribute it to the lack of military
support from the two allies – Russia and Iran.
Russia is busy fighting in Ukraine, while Iran’s main ‘tool’ in Syria –
Lebanon’s Hizb’ullah – is licking the many wounds inflicted by Israel.
Or so the story goes.
Frankly, this sounds utterly unconvincing to me. There are Russian planes at the Hmeimim base
on the Syrian coast – and they’re not bombing Ukraine. Before the recent ceasefire, Hizb’ullah still
had enough forces to fight the IDF – so surely those forces could now be
deployed in Syria?
And while complete abandonment by allies may explain Assad’s
downfall, it does not explain the lightning speed of that defeat. After all, before the Iranian and Russian intervention
Assad was gradually losing ground – but his regime did not crash down within
days.
As for the main rebel force – The Organisation for the
Liberation of Levant (Arabic: Ha’yat Tahrir al-Sham or HTS) – it is not a new
movement. It was established almost 8
years ago (almost an eternity in terms of Syria’s volatile politics) through
the merger of even older groups. Since
then, it established control over the Idlib region – in the north-western
corner of Syria, not far from Aleppo – but until recently showed little
appetite for a frontal fight with the regime.
What changed?
The Turkish connection
In the absence of democracy, power springs from the barrel
of the gun. That means men, money and
weapons. In the Middle East, men are
moved by ideologies – and there are plenty of them sloshing around. Most Arabs are observant Muslims and many of
them can – with relative ease – be persuaded to join Islamist ‘causes’. But while beliefs and ideas can send them to
forge jihad, they still expect their leaders to ‘take care of them’ from a
material perspective. Even believers have
to make a living; families left at home need to be provided for; and generous compensation
is expected for property damage and other losses incurred by the valiant mujahideen.
And then there’s weapons.
Assault rifles are not hard to find in the Middle East – though they (and
attending ammunition) still have to be procured and paid for. A rifle, a hand grenade, even a humble knife
may be enough for martyrdom; but the leaders want power – and these days it’s
hard to win a war with such weapons, no matter how uplifted one is by the spirit
of jihad. We’re talking machine guns, cannon
and missiles – sometimes even drones.
Not to mention vehicles – from the humble motorbike to cars, pickup
trucks and even light armour. There’s a
market for all that, yes – but not enough to equip an army. Only a state can provide that.
So what state equipped HTS – to the point of causing the Syrian
Army to largely disperse after a few skirmishes, rather than facing it?
Let’s ask the same question in a different way: what country,
just days after HTS conquered Damascus, called on the UN to remove the group’s
designation as a terror organisation?
You got it – it was Turkey!
Turkey’s increasingly autocratic leader Erdogan – himself an
Islamist, ideologically close to the Muslim Brotherhood – harbours a longing
for the old Ottoman world order, much as Putin dreams of a reborn USSR.
Of course, Turkey and its sponsored militias clashed with
HTS in the past; but it is hardly unusual – certainly in the Middle East – for past
adversaries to become allies, especially when they discover some shared
interests.
Turkey’s involvement can explain a few other mysteries. For instance – why were Iran and Russia so
quick to abandon their faithful ally Assad in his hour of need? And how come that no Russian soldiers, no
Iranian-sponsored militiamen and no IRGC ‘advisers’ were captured by the rebels
– to be publicly lynched by mobs thirsty for revenge? How come that the Damascus embassies of neither
Russia nor Iran were invaded, looted and set on fire – as usually happens in
this sort of ‘revolution’?
Is it that the HTS fighters are so generous in victory that
they decided to let bygones be bygones? Or
is it that two deals were actually (and secretly) made: one between Turkey and
HTS, the other involving Turkey, Russia and Iran?
Both Russia and Iran are under Western sanctions and
desperately in need of allies. Neither Russia
nor Iran are interested in Syria per se, but in its narrow utility: Russia
wants to maintain its military bases; Iran wants a land bridge to Lebanon. Both things that the HTS can afford to grant,
in return for Turkish support, plus Russian and Iranian non-interference.
No, Mr. Macron: what we have witnessed is not the ‘courageous
and patient’ “Syrian people” removing “at last” the “barbarous
state”. What’s just occurred is a
regional power with neo-colonial ambitions colluding with two other powers and
a local agent to further their respective interests.
Under Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey is increasingly adventurous,
aggressive and overbearing. That this Islamist
ideologue with a hanker for dictatorship also controls an impressive arsenal of
Nato weaponry shouldn’t make anyone’s sleep easier.
No this is very unlikely to bring “security of all in the
Middle East” – with all due respect to France’s generous ‘commitments’. If it is allowed to continue unopposed,
Turkey’s lunge into the Levant is likely to end up in war and strife on a scale
yet hard to fathom.
As for the “Syrian people,” they just
exchanged one bloody, murderous tyrant for another – at least as bad and
potentially even worse.
Make no mistake: HTS is not a ‘Syrian nationalist’ movement –
as the BBC and other hapless Western outlets want to believe. It’s not ‘just’ the group’s past affiliations
with ISIS and Al-Qaeda; it’s not ‘just’ the acts that ‘earned’ them the terrorism
listing in the first place. No, it’s in
the name: the ‘S’ in HTS does not stand for ‘Syria,’ but for ‘al-Sham’ – a term
loaded with almost mythological significance in the Middle East. This is the same ‘S’ as the second ‘S’ in
ISIS.
The recently Islamised Arabs who conquered the area in the 7th
century CE called it بِلَاد الشَّام (Bilad
Al-Sham, literally: ‘the Land of the Left Hand’). They emerged from the Arab Peninsula and –
when standing there and facing the rising sun – the Levant is to the left… Al-Sham was just an internal province within
the early Islamic Caliphate – hence its ‘borders’ were not clearly defined. But it included roughly the territories of
modern-day Syria, Lebanon, Israel (including West Bank and Gaza), as well as a
large chunk of Jordan.
HTS is not the Organisation for the Liberation of Syria (as
some would like to think in the West); its goal – declared in its very name –
is to ‘liberate’ the entire Levant.
If your world view is that the entire world will eventually ‘see
the light’ and (one way or another) embrace Islam; if your ideal model of
society is the Islamic Caliphate of 7th century CE; then you won’t
be put off by foreign and irrelevant concepts such as internationally-recognised
borders. And from that perspective ‘liberation’
doesn’t just include removing the Jewish state and the Western ‘Crusaders’ –
but also most Arab regimes, seen as not truly Islamic; ‘liberation’ means
returning to the ‘purity’ of 7th century Islam: its supremacy
uncontested, its men dressing in the prescribed way, its women put back in
their designated place, its infidels either suitably humble or put to the sword
and the various deviations punished as ordained.
Of course, if you’re a clever Islamist, you don’t say things
like that in English, or in the hearing of infidels. No, you’ll assume a moderate, even ‘progressive’
vocabulary. You’ll talk about bringing back
peace and social justice. You might even
force yourself to pronounce the name ‘Israel’ and declare that the Jews have
nothing to fear.
You will, of course, talk unctuously to the likes of BBC’s ‘International
Editor’ Jeremy Bowen. Not that it’s
difficult: these Western ‘journalists’ are, after all, absolutely clueless: they
speak none of the local languages (making them totally dependent on local
translators and ‘fixers’) and understand none of the local customs and culture
(beyond, at most, having acquired a taste for sweet Arabic coffee). And they’re not easy to dupe just because
they don’t understand when someone lies to them, but because they so desperately
want to believe – they end up lying to themselves. Imbued by a keen desire to ‘please the
natives’ (and thus atone for historic wrongs or for their own racist prejudices)
they want to show affinity; it comes out as asininity.
BBC's International Editor Jeremy Bowen is paid c. £250,000 a year for onerous jobs such as 'gently interviewing' the likes of Bashar Al-Assad and Abu Muhammed Al-Jawlani. |
A case in point: these Western journalists have all been
told to refer to the HTS leader by his real name of Ahmed al-Sharaa – and
immediately complied. Most have ‘reported’
this (swapping the ‘nom-de-guerre’ for the ‘real name’) as a sign of the man’s confidence
or even as a declaration of peaceful intentions. It’s much more likely an attempt at
dissimulation.
I have yet to read a Western article commenting on the
significance of that ‘nom-de-guerre’ – Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani. In itself, it represents a symbolic ‘return’
to early Islamic tradition, which – for any Islamist – represents ‘the Golden Age’. ‘Abu Mohammed’ is the traditional ‘kunya’: it
means ‘father of Mohammed,’: the bearer of that ‘kunya’ obviously named his
firstborn son after the Prophet – itself an unmistakable mark of piety. The latter part of the name (called ‘nisbah’)
is an indication of origin: the late Islamic State ‘caliph’ was called Abu Bakr
al-Baghdadi – indicating that he is ‘from Baghdad’. The late leader of Al-Qaeda was called ‘Al-Zawahiri’
(‘from Zawahir’ – a town in Saudi Arabia).
Al-Masri means ‘from Egypt’, Al-Soodani – from Sudan and so on. As for the current leader of HTS, his chosen ‘nisbah’
is al-Jawlani (or al-Julani, but not al-Jolani, as incorrectly rendered in the
West). ‘Jawlan’ or ‘Julan’ is the Arabic
name for the Golan Heights…
Ahmed al-Sharaa, alias Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani |
The current HTS warlord was born… no, not in Syria and not
on the Golan Heights, but in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The man the BBC calls ‘a Syrian nationalist’
joined Al-Qaeda in… Iraq – where he fought for a few years alongside another
famous terrorist – Abu Musab al-Zarqawi (from Zarqa, a town in Jordan). He only returned to Syria in 2011 – on an
al-Qaeda mission. Islamists are not nationalists
– their homeland is the Umma, ‘the Nation of Islam’. Still, Abu Mohammed’s family originated from
the Golan Heights – and that seemed important enough for Abu Mohammed to change
his ‘nisbah’ to Al-Jawlani. I wonder why?
So what should ‘we’ do about Syria?
(By ‘we’ I mean the rest of the world – the West in
particular.)
Here’s something my science teachers taught me: before
trying to invent a new solution to a problem, have a look around: it may be
that somebody has already tried and tested a solution to a similar
problem. Saves you time and embarrassment!
Not so long ago, in the heart of Europe, there was a country
called Yugoslavia. Also an invented name,
meaning ‘Land of the Southern Slavs’. Also
created by political interests, out of the shards of an Empire. Also home to a ‘diversity’ of people,
differing by ethnicity, faith and language.
For decades, that fake country was held together in the iron fist of a
bloody dictator. People were talking
about ‘the Yugoslav people’… But then the
tyrant died – and it turned out there was no such people. There were Orthodox Serbs, Catholic Croatians,
Muslim Bosniaks and Albanians who didn’t quite see eye to eye… and so the civil
war began. People were slaughtered by
the thousand; women and girls were gang-raped.
Hundreds of thousands were forced to leave their homes or fled out of
justified fear – this was the war that gave the phenomenon the name we use (and
sometimes abuse) today: ethnic cleansing.
Foreign powers got involved, as they do – Russia, Turkey, NATO…
Ethno-religious map of Yugoslavia |
The war ended only when everybody accepted that there was no
Yugoslavia; that Croatians did not wish to be ruled by Serbs, in ‘Yugoslavia,’
but to govern themselves in their own country – Serbia. The fake ‘Land of the Southern Slavs’
disappeared into history’s ‘failed experiments’ bin and a handful of nation
states came into being: Slovenia, Serbia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina,
Montenegro, North Macedonia, Kosova. None
of those are ‘ethnically pure’ – nor should they be. There are Croats living as a minority in
Serbia and Serbs in Croatia. But, however
wicked in itself (and it was!), the big ethnic cleansing was never reversed –
as that was likely to generate more suffering.
Those new nation states have meanwhile by-and-large learned to treat
their minorities fairly – since they are minorities and do not threaten to take
over and oppress the majority. They also
learned to live in peace with each other and are gradually building something they
still hesitate to call friendship.
So why don’t ‘we’ learn from that example? Why don’t we adopt (or, better still, adapt)
a similar solution to a similar problem?
Why is it that – just a few days ago – the European Commission (i.e.,
the same body that played a role in pacifying ‘Yugoslavia’) was:
“in agreement [with Turkey’s President Erdogan] on the need to preserve Syria's sovereignty and territorial integrity, with a particular focus on creating an inclusive government…”
Now, why should foreigners continue to impose “Syria's
sovereignty and territorial integrity” upon “the Syrian people,”
rather than allow (nay, encourage and help) those people to choose how they
wish to organise and govern themselves?
Why does the EU believe that Kurds and Alawis want less
self-determination than Croatians, Bosnians or Kosovar Albanians? Or does Ursula von der Leyen believe that
they deserve it less?
I think, unfortunately, that it’s even worse than that. Western ‘leaders’ with no sense of history
and morals are simply driven by political convenience. They understand only too well that Turkey was
behind the HTS takeover, that’s why Ms. Von der Leyen rushed to Ankara: to try
and appease Erdogan, to make sure the EU is ‘on the side of the winner’ – and attempt
to get something in return for the EU ‘support’. That in the process she betrayed “the
Syrian people” (along with EU’s own loudly proclaimed principles) is no
skin off her hard nose.
And that’s where ‘we’ get it horribly, dreadfully wrong. Despite their ‘inclusiveness’ and their
in-your-face wokeness, too many Western leaders believe – deep inside and not concealed
even from themselves – that ‘brown people’ are different; that they have
different aspirations, that they don’t crave freedom and identity like ‘we’
do. That they can be fobbed off with
less – for instance made to live in an invented country with an “inclusive
government” (like Lebanon, perhaps?)
But people are people.
They are endowed with intelligence and moral sense, whatever the colour
of their skin and the shape of their eyes.
From the ruins of Syria, from the misery of Africa and Asia and Latin
America, those eyes are watching ‘us’. From
‘us’ who have already conquered our freedom, they expect righteousness,
integrity and hope. But they see
Emmanuel Macron. They see Ursula von der
Leyen standing next to Recep Tayyip Erdogan – and they see through her. What they see is utter hypocrisy,
intellectual dishonesty, callousness and crypto-racism. No, they don’t like what they see. And can ‘we’ really blame them??